WASHINGTON (AP) —
Republicans count enough competitive races to challenge Democrats for
control of the Senate in the 2014 elections, if only they can figure out
what to do with the tea party.
Crowded
primaries in states such as Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, where tea
partyers and social conservatives are fighting for the nomination and
pushing candidates farther right, worry many Republicans, especially
after they saw their legitimate shots at a Senate majority slip away in
2010 and 2012.
Republicans
need a net gain of six seats to capture control from Democrats, who
effectively hold a 55-45 advantage now. But Democrats will be defending
21 of 35 seats to be decided in November, and President Barack Obama is
looking like a major drag for them. Midterm elections are often tough
for a president's party in any event.
"History
is with us, geography is with us and the president's signature
legislative achievement is the most unpopular" law of his tenure, Rob
Collins, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial
Committee, said of Obama and his health care overhaul.
Republicans
inside and outside the Senate speak confidently about snatching open
seats in West Virginia and South Dakota. They like their chances against
Democratic incumbents in Republican-leaning Arkansas, Louisiana and
Alaska and remain upbeat about Montana even if Democratic Gov. Steve
Bullock names Lt. Gov. John Walsh to succeed Sen. Max Baucus, Obama's
choice for U.S. ambassador to China.
The looming question is
whether Republicans undercut their solid shot with tea party-style
candidates who fizzled out in Delaware, Colorado and Nevada in 2010 and
Indiana and Missouri in 2012.
Georgia
is keeping some Republicans awake at night. Eight candidates, including
three House members, are pursuing the open seat of retiring two-term
Sen. Saxby Chambliss in a state that dramatically went Republican in
1994 and rarely has looked back. Georgia hasn't elected a non-incumbent
Democrat since 1998.
A loss of the GOP seat would complicate any Republican math for a majority.
The
top Democratic hopeful is Michelle Nunn, CEO of the volunteer
organization Points of Light and daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn. The
younger Nunn's diligence gets high marks from Democrats and Republicans.
She has raised more than $1.7 million and campaigned with a purpose.
She stands as a moderate Democrat who could appeal to Georgia's electorate and a Washington outsider in a year when congressional approval is in single digits.
Republicans
are nervous about Rep. Paul Broun, who has said evolution and the Big
Bang theory are "lies straight from the pit of Hell." Although the
four-term Georgia congressman has avoided incendiary comments in his
latest campaign, several Republicans privately fret about him winning
the nomination.
Looking to
seize the edge in the free-for-all primary, Broun recently pounded rival
Rep. Jack Kingston, considered more moderate, after Kingston suggested
that Obama's health care law could be fixed. Kingston quickly
backtracked on an issue that resonates with core GOP voters, but then
came under criticism for saying poor children could pay a small fee or
work cleaning up to receive school-subsidized lunches.
"'Why don't
you, you know, have the kids pay a dime, pay a nickel to instill in
them that there is, in fact, no such thing as a free lunch — or maybe
sweep the floor in the cafeteria,'" he said at a Jackson County event.
Guy
Cecil, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee, argued that the presence of tea partyers in primaries is
forcing all Republican candidates to race to the right. The result is
nominees unacceptable in the general election, he said.
"Primary electorates are so small it essentially encourages the Akin-ization of the entire Republican primary," Cecil said.His reference was to Missouri 2012. Republicans were certain they could defeat Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., but their nominee, Rep. Todd Akin, flamed out after saying women's bodies can avoid pregnancy in cases of "legitimate rape." McCaskill won re-election by 16 percentage points.
Several Republicans insist that establishment candidates will eventually prevail and the internal fights won't matter as Democrats struggle with the most contentious issue of the year — Obama's health care law — and the political damage from its many problems.
"I think it may be the most difficult political yoke to carry in the history of American politics," said Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga. "Where else do you have something that affects everybody? And health care does."
Democrats don't dispute that the troubled rollout of the health care website has hurt them.
"There's
no doubt Republicans are a little more gleeful," said John Anzalone, a
Democratic pollster and adviser to North Carolina Democratic Sen. Kay
Hagan, who is seeking a second term. "Who can say with a straight face
that this has not been a bad month for Democrats?"
But Anzalone added: "It's not a permanent thing. This is really about the political environment nationally. It evens out."
In
the North Carolina race, Senate Republicans have been raising money for
Thom Tillis, speaker of the state House. Tillis faces challenges from
Greg Brannon, a physician who has the backing of Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky.,
and has been seeking the support of the tea party and Rev. Mark Harris, a
Baptist minister who was instrumental in the state fight to ban gay
marriage.
Hagan has struggled
to answer for her support for the health care law, and in a clear sign
of Democratic concern, the Senate Majority PAC, which backs Democratic
candidates, bought $750,000 of television air time in December to
counter Republican attacks against her. The group spent hundreds of
thousands of dollars more for Hagan earlier in the year.
North Carolina's primary is May 6 and if no candidate gets 40 percent of the vote, a runoff is set for July 15.
Collins,
the Senate Republicans' campaign director, maintained that competition
in the primaries will make the party's eventual nominees stronger for
the general election.
Republicans
see a potential to expand the field from the top tier races to contests
in Michigan and Minnesota. Iowa seemed like a prime opportunity for
Republicans after five-term Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin announced he
would not seek another term.
Democrats
rallied around four-term Rep. Bruce Braley. But on the GOP side, there
are no fewer than seven candidates seeking the nomination in Iowa,
including conservative radio host Sam Clovis, state Sen. Joni Ernst,
former energy company CEO Mark Jacobs and former U.S. Attorney Matt
Whitaker. There is talk that even more will enter the race.
Iowa's
June 3 primary has a 35 percent threshold. If no candidate gets that
much, the nomination would be decided at a party convention where the
most conservative members typically nominate a harder-right candidate. from associate press news.
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