At the end, the decision as to who becomes the next Governor of Osun is left in the hands of 3,498 voters in just seven polling units across four local government areas in the state. But given how high the stake has become, it is my prayer that the exercise does not degenerate into another bazaar or a financial shoot-out in which the highest bidder takes the day. I am also hoping that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) can complete, without further hitches, the exercise it started so brilliantly.
Evidently impressed by what he had observed at the weekend, the Deputy Chief of Mission at the United States Embassy, Mr David Young praised the commission, though he spoke before the election was declared inconclusive. “They (INEC) are moving forward and in a positive way. I think this is going to be a very close election. It is going to come down to a very small margin…We at the United States have had very close elections too. I urge the people to be peaceful and respect the result that comes out in the time ahead.”
While there were 48 candidates in the race last Saturday, the choice has been narrowed down to two: Senator Ademola Adeleke of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who led with 353 votes and Gboyega Oyetola of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) who came second. That the margin is small makes the exercise of today very dicey. A politician I discussed with on Monday said he would win were he to be either the PDP or the APC candidate and I asked him how. He said he would simply treat the 3,498 voters as ‘super delegates’ with N200,000 allocated for each.
The man broke it down for me. If he were Adeleke, with an ‘extra’ 353 votes already in the kitty he explained, he would need no more than 1600 ballots even if everybody on the voters register turned up. With that, all the ‘logistics’ he would mobilise and deploy is just about N320 million. If he were Oyetola, he would need about 1900 votes so that would cost him about N380 million. Either way, we are still talking of about a million dollars which is small potato to our politicians when it comes to gaming elections at that level. While I join in commending INEC for improving on many areas last weekend, I hope the commission will insist on the policy of no camera inside the polling booth which ensured that the promoters of ‘see and buy’ who had a field day during the Ekiti State gubernatorial election in June were checkmated in Osun State.
That the prospective 3,498 voters are indeed being treated as ‘Super Delegates’ can be glimpsed from what has been happening since the poll was declared inconclusive on Sunday. Ordinarily, you would expect both Adeleke and Oyetola to embark on house-to-house campaign in the affected areas but instead, the whole exercise has been reduced to cutting deals not directly with the voters but rather with those who have already exercised their own franchise, essentially because of the assumption that they control the ‘Super Delegates’. From the Senate President and other top politicians in the PDP to the APC National Chairman and five of their governors, the residence of Omisore has become the new political Mecca and he was the man with whom everybody wanted to take photograph until he finally decided yesterday afternoon. Meanwhile, I will not be surprised if some political contractors have been serving as ‘intermediaries’ between the candidates and the voters in the affected areas.
While we will deal with these vexatious issues in our politics another day, let me quickly highlight the most significant lessons that can be drawn from what transpired last weekend. One, education and intellect no longer matter in the choice of leadership in Nigeria and on that, I will leave readers to draw their own conclusion. Two, political parties are mere labels because most of them stand for the same thing, a reason why it is very easy for our politicians to dump one for another at any given time. Three, and most significant, voters in our country are becoming more empowered.
In his piece, “Osun: Election as Theatre” on Tuesday, Dr Reuben Abati wrote on how Aregbesola and other APC leaders, who were apparently expecting an easy ride because the opposition was fractionalized into several parties, must have been shocked that the PDP candidate could still put up such a strong performance. “What they will also not easily admit is that Adeleke’s performance is from all indications…a comment on the prevailing order in that state: a vote against non-payment of salaries, and pensions, and a comment on the arrogance of the APC elite” wrote Abati and I completely agree.
The bulk of the votes Adeleke got came from people who were out to punish a government that owe its workers several months in salaries. Whatever may be the final outcome at the end of today, it is safe to conclude that majority of Osun electorate want a change and anyone, including someone with F9 in English but distinction in dancing, would do, simply because they do not want to reward bad behaviour. There are also APC faithfuls who may be protesting the imposition of the gubernatorial candidate by the party lords. Adeleke benefitted from both, even when it is difficult to ascertain his capacity for managing a state that is already heavily indebted. But let us go back to the political hubris.
When in July last year, Ademola Adeleke won the Osun West Senatorial bye-election to replace his late brother, Isiaka, it should have dawned on Aregbesola that he miscalculated. It should also have taught the APC leaders some lessons for the future but they were apparently too absorbed in their own invincibility to learn anything. For instance, if Adeleke had been given the senatorial ticket to complete the tenure of his deceased brother, he and his supporters would have remained in APC. But the matter was handled in such an antagonistic manner that the younger Adeleke had to leave for PDP where he was handed the Senatorial ticket with which he secured a landslide victory against the APC candidate. From that moment, it became clear that the ‘Ajobiewe’ Senator would go for the governorship of the state. It was also at that point that hubris set in for Aregbesola and the APC leadership.
Among the candidates who sought the Osun State APC gubernatorial ticket, the most popular was Moshood Adeoti, the former Secretary to the State Government and a grassroots politician from Iwo. The local sentiment in the state was also on his side. Of the three senatorial districts in the state, the only one that has not produced a governor under the current dispensation is Osun West so the popular expectation was that Adeoti would secure the APC ticket, given the not-so-subtle clamour for power shift. At the end, it was Oyetola, who hails from the same Central zone where Bisi Akande and Olagunsoye Oyinlola (who spent a combined period of 11 years in office) come from, that secured the ticket because he had the support of the powers-that-be within the party.
This then takes us to the biggest lesson in the Osun election that we should also not gloss over. The disdain for consensus and utter disrespect for local sensitivities by those who call themselves leaders in Nigeria is at the heart of the challenge we face in the polity today. And until we successfully deal with it, there will be no meaningful development in our country.
On Tuesday afternoon, I had lunch with some prominent Nigerians from the North and from the discussion at the table, in virtually all the northern states where the governor has done a second term in both the PDP and APC, the persons they are pushing as candidates of their parties and likely successors are either their cousin or brother in-law. A few of them that do not care about bloodlines are promoting known lackeys. But the problem is not restricted to the North; afterall, in Imo State, Rochas Okorocha is desperate to enthrone his son-in-law as his successor while the Osun APC problem started with someone wanting his cousin as the next governor.
Anybody who has followed the argument within the ruling APC on what to adopt between direct and indirect primaries will see how difficult it is to enthrone democracy in our country. At the end, the governors and the godfathers chose the one they think will produce desired outcome. Even those canvassing direct primaries know what they are doing; after all, they determine who the party members that can vote are since no political party in Nigeria has a credible register. With that, the people have already been rigged out because, in many of these states come February next year, the electorate may be left with no more than a choice between maggot-infested apples and rotten oranges.
Last week, I started a series on the relevance of a manageable number of issues-based political parties to the development of our society against the background of the current situation where every politician aspires to own his/her own political party. I am well aware that in the age of social media when several countries are choosing relatively young leaders on the strength of their vision, intellect and charisma, there is an urgent need for a paradigm shift in the way we play politics. But in our country, and perhaps in so many others, the route to power still remains the platforms of popular political parties, not the fringe ones, at least in the immediate future. And that is why there must be a serious reform in the manner candidates emerge from those political parties, if our democracy is to deliver on public good.
Written by Olusegun Adeniyi
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