Most investors are highly focused on the upcoming U.S. presidential election, and rightfully so.
As of now, subject to change, it's likely to feature a rematch of the Biden-Trump election of 2020. Their policies diverge significantly.
Biden is aligned with progressive policies, including open borders, climate action, support for abortion rights, and an expanded role in Ukraine.
On the contrary, Trump supports increased oil and gas production ("drill, baby, drill"), cessation of subsidies for electric vehicles, peace talks in Ukraine, and withdrawal from globalist agendas, including imposing higher tariffs on China.
The 2024 presidential election in the U.S. isn't merely a political choice but a substantial investment decision. The outcome will lead to vastly different policies and investment outcomes.
Additionally, there's a significant number of House and Senate races at the state level that could influence presidential preferences and subsequent policies.
2024 will likely be seen as a pivotal moment for the U.S., irrespective of the election outcome. However, the impact of political decisions isn't confined to the U.S.; it extends globally.
Coincidentally, 2024 coincides with critical leadership elections worldwide, making it a global turning point. At least 64 countries, along with the European Union, are scheduled to hold national elections, affecting a substantial portion of the world's population.
These election outcomes will have far-reaching consequences for global affairs.
The traditional notion of "Politics stops at the water's edge" is no longer applicable. Domestic political disputes spill over into the global arena, impacting international affairs from Taiwan to Israel to Ukraine and beyond.
Foreign political dynamics directly affect the U.S. economy. Whether it's Taiwanese sovereignty, Iranian nuclear activities, or Russian sanctions, the repercussions on the U.S. economy and investors' portfolios can be significant and immediate.
Moreover, factors such as oil production, strategic resources, agricultural output, technology, and social stability on the international stage will influence the markets as much as domestic politics this year.
In the following discussion, we shift our focus from U.S. politics to major elections taking place or recently concluded worldwide, an aspect often overlooked by Wall Street research.
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